🔗 Share this article Can Scotland finally break the long-standing losing streak? The All Blacks have made several changes to the side that beat Ireland International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital When: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match. The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off. Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory. As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history. Missing Players Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying. In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship. Replacement Concerns Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard. Strategic Decisions The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Past Encounters Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to New Zealand in 2022 Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory. That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there. In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks. Final Analysis Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.