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In his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump vowed to avoid expensive and often disastrous overseas armed engagements like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This assurance was a key part of his non-interventionist “America first” platform. But within months taking office, American military units initiated airstrikes in Yemen and Iran. Turning to the south, Trump threatened to take control of the Panama Canal. Now, the Pentagon is preparing for possible strikes against alleged “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest immediate concern is a potential fresh White House effort to forcibly impose regime change on Venezuela.

Venezuela's Reaction and Escalating Strains

Venezuela's president, the country's hard-left authoritarian leader, asserts that this effort has already begun. He states that Washington is waging an “undeclared war” on his nation following multiple lethal strikes on Venezuelan vessels in the high seas. Trump last week informed Congress that the United States is engaged in “armed conflict” with drug cartels. He claims, without providing evidence, that the targeted vessels transported drugs bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader bears responsibility. The administration has issued a $50m bounty for Maduro’s head.

Regional nations are anxiously watching a major American armed forces build-up around Venezuela, featuring warships, F-35 fighter jets, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. Such powerful assets are hardly very useful in anti-drug operations. However they might be used offensively, or to assist commando operations and bombing runs. Recently, Venezuela alleged Washington of unauthorized entry by at least five F-35s. The president states he is readying emergency powers to defend citizens in case Venezuela comes under attack from the United States.

Analyzing the Reasons Behind the Moves

What exactly is Trump doing? Drug smuggling is a serious problem – yet taking lives on a whim on the high seas, although common and difficult to prosecute, is still illegal. Moreover, United Nations reports state most of the cocaine reaching the US originates in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked via Venezuela. Trump, a former avoided military service, enjoys playing the tough commander-in-chief. He is now seeking to expel Venezuelan immigrants, a large number originally fled to America to escape economic measures he previously enforced. Some analysts suggest he covets Venezuela’s abundant oil, gas and natural wealth.

It’s true that Trump and his former national security adviser, hoped to oust Maduro back in 2019 in what Caracas claimed a regime change plot. It’s also true, Maduro’s 2024 re-election win was widely denounced as fraudulent. Given a free choice, Venezuelans would almost certainly remove him. And, opposing political beliefs play a role, too. Maduro, unworthy successor to Hugo Chávez’s socialist movement, is offensive to the president's imperial idea of an American-led western hemisphere, in which the historic policy rules again and neoliberal economics functions without restraint.

Absence of Coherent Strategy

However given his inept blundering on other key foreign matters, the probable reason for Trump’s behavior is that, as usual, he lacks understanding what he’s doing – regarding Caracas or the region as a whole. There’s no plan. He throws his weight about, makes impetuous decisions, stokes fear of foreigners and bases policy based on if he approves of foreign counterparts. In 2019, with Maduro on the ropes, Trump blinked. Today, full-scale armed involvement in the country is still improbable. More probable is an intensified pressure campaign involving destabilisation, penalties, maritime strikes, and air and commando raids.

Far from weakening and isolating Maduro's government, the US could bring about the exact opposite. The president is already using the situation to seize dictatorial emergency authority and rally public opinion behind patriotic appeals for national solidarity. Trump’s aggression towards additional left-leaning Latin American countries – like Colombia – and presumptuous cheerleading for conservative leaders from Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring a regional backlash, too. The majority of nations abhor the idea of a return to the bad old days of American meddling in the hemisphere.

Latin American Reaction and Diplomatic Setbacks

Trump’s effort to use trade penalties and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil into pardoning its former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro backfired dramatically recently. Huge crowds took to the streets in Brazilian urban centers to defend what they perceived as an attack on national independence and legal principles. The popularity of Bolsonaro’s successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. “We are not, and will never become, anyone’s colony,” he declared. The Brazilian leader effectively told Trump, essentially, to back off. Then, when they met at the UN summit, Trump backed off and played nice.

The perception of a significant regression in inter-American ties grows ineluctably. “His administration sees Latin America primarily as a danger, associating it with drug trafficking, organised crime and incoming migration,” an analyst warned recently. American policy has become essentially negative, prioritizing unilateral action and control instead of partnership,” she added, stating: Latin America is viewed less as a peer and rather as a sphere of influence to be controlled according to American goals.”

Hawkish Officials and Rising Rhetoric

The president's hardline advisers contribute to the problem: especially Stephen Miller, White House top aide, and Marco Rubio, a former Republican senator for Florida serving as secretary of state and security advisor. For Rubio, a longtime opponent of leftwing rulers in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Defending the boat attacks, he stated: “Interdiction are ineffective. The solution is when you blow them up … This will continue.” From the chief diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Long-term Consequences

Trump’s efforts to reprise the role of Latin American regional enforcer, copying ex-leader Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are regressive, risky and self-defeating. Long-term, the main beneficiary will most likely be Beijing, a growingly powerful player, economic partner and leading member of the international bloc of nations. While America burns its bridges across the world, Trump is making China great again.